Indonesia and the COVID-19: How Far Would President Jokowi’s Political Leadership be Tested?

As we all know, the COVID-19 pandemic is not only affecting the global health and economic situation, but it has also tested the political leadership of all countries no matter what their political system is. Either they are Republic with Presidential System like Indonesia and Parliamentary System like India, Absolute Monarchy such as Saudi Arabia, Constitutional Monarchy, or One-party State like China. Democracy? Autocracy? coronavirus infection has no boundaries!

However, one issue that has been debated by many experts around the world is about the government system. Democracy as the most applied form of governmental system is arguably in danger and has differently assessed on whether it’s an effective form of government or not at the time of this unprecedented health crisis.

At the time when the first case announced in Indonesia, our democracy is in a relatively mature stage. President Jokowi has just re-elected last year and new cabinet members have just been working for not far than 100 days. Jokowi is also was in a very strong position with a strong government coalition in the legislative body. The most challenging part of our democracy is certainly the rising hoax and misinformation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. President Jokowi’s political leadership is now being tested.

Before the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia, the government has planned its ambitious infrastructure development, including a new capital. Some new ministers have also brought up more agenda to achieve the vision of Jokowi in the second term. The Foreign Ministry for instance has an initiative in an attempt to advance the concrete cooperation in implementing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) and enhance the economic diplomacy through the signing of more free trade agreements this year.

However, COVID-19 has disrupted everything, from the global supply chain until the trade relationship among countries. The trends of business bankruptcy of many businesses in particularly airlines and the changing consumer behavior are some of the implications of this pandemic. Most significantly, the shifting of economic directions and diversification of trade partners to avoid economic dependency may be the pattern of the post-COVID-19 era.

On top of that, the political leadership is a core of how the COVID-19 will be ended. We have seen several world leaders who have relatively successful in battling COVID-19. Just recently, New Zealand just declaring itself as COVID-19 free nation. The leadership of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has played a strong role in effective containment policy and measures. With no health background, but with well-built political and communication experiences, she is undoubtedly capable to lead the process in dealing with this health crisis.

How about Indonesia?

Since the early times when the issue of this pandemic has caught the public attention until now, we all see some characteristics which are the unreasonable denial of government towards COVID-19, the inconsistency of decision, the lack of coordination between central and local government and the soaring trade-off between economic and public health perspective of the COVID-19 pandemic.

One reason may become an excuse, this pandemic is an unprecedented crisis. Hence, this is a global pandemic, countries all over the world have the same problems. Then, how will this impact the political power of a leader?

President Moon Jae-in (Source: https://theconversation.com/four-challenges-for-moon-jae-in-south-koreas-new-president-77422)

In the case of South Korea who has just convened the general election, President Moon Jae-in’s successful measures and policies in handling the COVID-19 crisis has turned-out into high votes. The people trust towards the government shown from the last recent general election on 15 April 2020. President Moon’s Democratic Party and its affiliate won 180 out of 300 seats, clearly concluded as a reward for good performance by his administration.

India has an interesting fact with Prime Minister Modi’s approval rating is rising even though the country faces a lot of challenges in battling the coronavirus crisis reportedly by the recent poll. Comparably, in the United States, Trump’s approval rating plummets and has strengthened Joe Biden’s position to win the November election. The recent survey by CNN found that 55% of voters would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 41% would favor Trump.

In Indonesia, we still have four years from the next presidential election. Nonetheless, Jokowi needs to contemplate the effect of this crisis politically. No matter the government plans in terms of an economic recovery plan or any ambitious government agendas at the post-pandemic time. The ability to solve this crisis will be recalled and it will significantly affect the political trust of Indonesians to the ruling government.

Jokowi also can’t distract the attention of the population with another strategy besides the success story in combating COVID-19. The public dissatisfaction will be a coming challenge for Jokowi’s presidency in the foreseeable future, and it should be anticipated.

Economic recovery is perhaps an effective way. The government deemed in a rush process to restart the call for investment as a priority for the nation. The growth of our investment development needs the population’s support. I remembered the news when the government aims to continue the infrastructure projects a few months ago has been strongly criticized by many figures including opinion makers in the opposition.

The key lesson learned of the pandemic is the first communication strategy. Effective public communication delivered to the citizens is critical and it is influencing the public obedience over government policies.

Second, the government needs to be more acceptable on public discord and debates, especially if it’s coming from the key stakeholders. Third, government policies that are based on data or scientific consideration should be intensified, no longer based on individual preferences. The government has to come up in the opposite way from what has been captured by the public disappointment during the pandemic.

The short term solution perhaps a cabinet reshuffle and my suggestion to President Jokowi is to make a new year speech to re-affirmed the government priorities and agendas vigorously after COVID-19 and bring up a clearer narrative on what would be new normal expectedly from the population to achieve. The government should also focus on the long term outlook instead of short impact — which is less likely to be public health investment.

The energy of the populations has been exhausted caused by the COVID-19 crisis, it is even exacerbated by the unnecessary political incidents during the pandemic. The nation needs to rise and Jokowi as a leader is the main actor to lead the way in lifting the spirit of Indonesians. We still remember the last words said in your inauguration speech last year Mr. President, “My sail is flying, my helm is mounted, together we move toward an advanced Indonesia!”. Looking forward to that!